Premier League action continues Sunday as we head to Vitality Stadium where AFC Bournemouth will host Everton hoping to get back on track with a win. Both sides will be desperately looking for three points in the result.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Dafabet Odds
Team to Win (Regular Time)
AFC Bournemouth: 3.03
Draw: 3.60
Everton FC: 2.37
Spread
AFC Bournemouth +0.5: 1.87
Everton FC -0.5: 2.07
Total
Over 2.5: 1.78
Under 2.5: 2.13
What to Watch For
Betting on the Total: Sim data would lean slightly on the UNDER. The total combined score gets very close to 2.5, so the data is really split on this — but the UNDER hits more often than does the OVER.
Looking for a Win: Both sides are coming off a loss and a draw, respectively, in the past two weeks. On Aug. 10, Bournemouth finished in a 1-1 draw vs Sheffield, before losing 3-1 to Manchester City on Aug. 25. Everton finished in a scoreless draw vs Crystal Palace on Aug. 10 before losing 2-0 vs Aston Villa on Aug. 23.
Scoring Averages: Over the last 12 games dating back to last season, Bournemouth are averaging 1.67 goals per sim compared to 1.42 goals per for Everton.
Head to Head: These two sides last matched up in January 2019 when Everton won 2-0 behind goals by Zouma and Calvert-Lewin. They finished in a 2-2 draw the matchup prior (Aug. 25, 2018).
Projected Leaders
Richarlison is projected to lead Everton, averaging 1.88 shots overall per sim, 0.64 shots on goal per and 0.44 goals per sim. He has close to a 36 percent chance to score.
For AFC Bournemouth, we’ll have our eyes on Callum Wilson. He averages 1.36 shots overall per sim, 0.68 shots on goal per and 0.38 goals per sim. Wilson has close to a 32 percent chance to score.
Analyst’s Pick
AFC Bournemouth +0.5
Whereas offshore odds-makers have Everton as slight favorites, simulation data has Bournemouth winning more sims than do Everton. The average score in simulations is 1.54 – 1.21, in favor of Bournemouth.
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