EPL – Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Premier League action is back this weekend as Brighton & Hove Albion and Burnley match up at American Express Community Stadium.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)

Brighton & Hove Albion: 2.23

Draw: 3.34
Burnley FC: 3.55

Spread

Brighton & Hove Albion -0.5: 2.21
Burnley FC +0.5: 1.76

Total
Over 2.5: 1.91
Under 2.5: 1.99

What to Watch For

Betting on the Draw: Odds indicate there’s a 30 percent chance this match ends in a draw. That happens in under 25 percent of simulations, suggesting no added value on the pick.

The projected score is 1.92 – 0.83, in favor of Brighton & Hove.

Some Numbers: Nothing to write home about, but not a bad start to the season either for Brighton & Hove. They’ve allowed just three goals so far on the season and should remain competitive in most fixtures thanks for their defense. They’ve scored four goals on just two assists, though.

Last Time Out: Brighton will look to bounce back after a 4-0 road loss vs Manchester City. They lost to Southampton, 2-0 at home, their previous matchup in Premier League. Burnley is also looking to get a win sooner vs later, coming off a 3-0 loss at home vs Liverpool and a 1-1 road draw vs Wolverhampton.

Head to Head: These two sides last matched up in Premier League action on Feb. 9, 2019 when Burnely won, 3-1. Brighton & Hove last defeated Burnley in any competition back in 2013.

Projected Leaders

Ashley Barnes is projected to lead the way for Burnley, averaging 1.64 shots overall per sim, 0.79 shots on goal per and 0.40 goals per sim. He has a 32-to-33 percent chance to score.

Neal Maupay has close to a 61 percent chance to net the ball for Brighton & Hove. He averages four-to-five shots overall per sim, 1.96 shots on goal per and 0.93 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

Brighton & Hove to win.

Odds indicate there’s a 45 percent chance Brighton & Hove win this matchup. They win over 60 percent of simulations, suggesting some added value on the pick.

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