EPL Match Preview: Everton vs Chelsea

Everton sit in the bottom three heading into this weekend’s matchup vs a Chelsea roster coming off a win vs Aston Villa.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)
Everton FC: 3.53
Draw: 3.77
Chelsea FC: 2.08

Spread

Everton FC +0.5: 1.85
Chelsea FC-0.5: 2.08

Total

Over 2.5: 1.71
Under 2.5: 2.23

Key Points to Consider

Last 6: Everton, coming off a 5-2 thrashing on the road vs Liverpool, have 3 losses, 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 overall. Chelsea, fresh off a 2-1 home win vs Aston Villa, have 2 wins, 2 losses and 2 draws in their last 6.

Some Changes: We’re expecting a few changes for Chelsea, potentially seeing the likes of Tomori and Zouma in the midfield to bolster that unit. They got the win vs Aston Villa, but it wasn’t as convincing as some would have hoped.

Head-to-Head: These two sides last matched up in Premier League action in March 2019 when Everton won, 2-0.

Projected Leaders

Tammy Abraham has a 50 percent chance to score for Chelsea. He averages 2.37 shots overall per sim, 1.19 shots on goal per and 0.70 goals per sim.

For Everton, Richarlison has a 31 percent chance to net the ball. Her averages 2.11 shots overall per sim, 0.71 shots on goal per and 0.36 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

Chelsea to win.

Odds indicate Chelsea have about a 47-to-48 percent chance to win this matchup, but they win over 51 percent of simulated matchups — adding some side value on the pick. Average margin of victory for Chelsea in sims is +0.66 goals. The money line pick is a three-star (out of four) hot trend pick, but the side value specifically is a four-star (out of four) hot trend pick.

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