Manchester City is favored to win the all-English UEFA Champions League final against Chelsea after their 4-1 aggregate victory over Paris Saint-Germain in the semifinals. Man City were brilliant in both legs of the tie with Paris Saint-Germain, with Phil Foden and Riyad Mahrez emerging as key players for them. Mahrez scored both goals in the 2-0 victory in the second leg against PSG.
Chelsea reached the UFC Final for the third time with a 2-0 win over Real Madrid in the second leg of their semifinal tie. Timo Werner and Mason Mount scored the goals for Chelsea in a game in which they created enough chances to win by at least four goals. The X-factor for Chelsea can be N’Golo Kante, who is playing very well right now, proving that he is a world class player. Kante’s energy in midfield will be the key to winning the UEFA Champions League final for Chelsea. The game will be played at Ataturk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul behind closed doors because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Dafabet Picks
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Manchester City: 1.87
• Chelsea: 4.60
• Draw: 3.60
Spread
• Manchester City: -0.5 (1.87)
• Chelsea: +0.5 (2.06)
Total
• Over 2, 2.5 (2.01)
• Under 2, 2.5 (1.89)
Key Points to Consider
Last 6: Chelsea, coming off a 2-0 home win against Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on May 5, have 4 wins, 1 loss and 1 draw in their last 6 UEFA Champions League games. Manchester City, coming off a 2-0 home win against Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League, have 6 wins, 0 losses and 0 draws in their last 6 UEFA Champions League games.
Momentum: Manchester City has been on an upward trend — with 7 straight wins in the UEFA Champions League.
Head-to-Head: These two sides last matched up in Premier League action on January 3, 2021 and Manchester City won 3-1.
Projected Leaders
For Manchester City, Ilkay Gündogan has a 38.5 percent chance to score. He averages 1.73 shots overall per sim, 0.75 shots on goal per and 0.49 goals per sim.
For Chelsea, Timo Werner has a 12.3 percent chance to net the ball. He averages 1.05 shots overall per sim, 0.45 shots on goal per and 0.13 goals per sim.
Prediction
Manchester City were excellent in both legs of their semifinal tie against PSG. They recovered from a first half goal in Paris to dominate the second half and win 2-1. Then, they scored in both halves of a game they controlled in Manchester to win comfortably.
Chelsea, on the other hand, continued to improve under Thomas Tuchel. After a 1-1 draw in Madrid, Chelsea dominated Real Madrid at Stamford Bridge, outplaying the 13-times UCL kings in a 2-0 win. THe only issue was that Chelsea blew many opportunities to take a more comfortable lead and that could cost them against Manchester City.
That wasn’t the case when Chelsea ended Man City’s hopes of a quadruple in the FA Cup semifinal in April or on Saturday’s 2-1 road win in the Premier League but keep this in mind. The UCL final will showcase two of the brightest young teams in the world and I’m looking at the Over in what should be a hard-fought contest that will be decided by both midfields.
Analyst’s Pick
The Over
Four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick on the total in this one. Average score in simulations is Manchester City 2.15 to Chelsea 0.66.
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