Arsenal vs Crystal Palace: EPL Game Preview

Crystal Palace and Arsenal match up for the second time this season as Palace host the Gunners this Saturday. They finished in a draw last time out.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Picks

Team to Win (Regular Time)
Crystal Palace: 4.18
Draw: 3.89
Arsenal FC: 1.87

Spread
Crystal Palace +0.5: 2.05
Arsenal FC -0.5: 1.88

Total
Over 2.5: 1.76
Under 2.5: 2.16

 

Key Points to Consider

Last 6: Palace have 3 draws, 2 losses and 1 win in their last six overall. Arsenal have 2 wins, 2 losses and 2 draws in their last six overall.

On Pace: Some expected Palace to be in the relegation battle before the season started, but they’re sitting at a solid 28 points and look to be finishing much higher than anyone expected. They have just one loss in their last eight league fixtures.

Some Numbers: Despite a relatively solid season, Palace has struggled mightily to put the ball in the back of the net. They have just 19 goals scored all season, No. 19 out of 20 in the league. They are No. 20 in shots taken.

Head-to-Head: These two sides met most recently on October 27, 2019 when they finished in a 2-2 draw.

Projected Leaders

For Arsenal, Aubameyang has a 44-to-45 percent chance to score. He averages 2.57 shots overall per sim, 1.05 shots on goal per and 0.59 goals per sim.

For Palace, Jordan Ayew has a 26-to-27 percent chance to score. He averages 2.11 shots overall, 0.66 shots on goal per and 0.31 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

Palace +0.5

Simulation data has some extra side value on both Palace and the draw, suggesting the match might be a little more competitive than picks-makers are suggesting. Average margin of victory per sim is Arsenal +0.51 goals. Safe pick is Arsenal on the money line, but Palace +0.5 has the value.

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