EPL: Burnley FC vs Southampton FC

Premier League Day 1 action continues Saturday as Burnley and Southampton go head-to-head at Turf Moor. AccuScore simulations are showing some side value in this one.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)

Burnley FC: 2.69
Draw: 3.29
Southampton FC: 2.82

Spread

Burnley FC -0.5: 2.61
Southampton FC +0.5: 1.52

Total
Over 2: 1.60
Under 2: 2.42

What to Watch For

Betting on the Total: Odds indicate there’s a about an 41 percent chance the total combined score stays under 2 goals. That happens in 47 percent of simulations – suggesting some added value on the pick.

The projected score is 0.96 – 0.80, in favor of Burnley.

Betting Trends: The UNDER of 1.5 has hit in the last two matchups between these two sides. The UNDER of 2.5 goals has hit in the last seven overall.

Some Momentum: Southampton has had some solid performances in their summer friendlies so far — finishing with four wins and a draw. Southampton goalkeeper Angus Gunn hopes to use that momentum heading into this match, “emphasizing” the team has to “start well this season.”

Home vs Away Trends from 2018-2019: Looking back to earlier in the year, Burnley finished the season with two home losses (Arsenal, Manchester City). Southampton finished the season with a loss and a draw in their final two road fixtures of 2018-2019.

Head to Head: These two sides last matched up in Feb. 2019 when they finished in a 1-1 draw. They have finished in a draw in their last 3 matchups dating back to Feb. 2018.

Projected Leaders

Danny Ings has close to an 18 percent chance to score for Southampton this Saturday. Ings averages 1.09 shots overall per sim, 0.57 shots on goal per and 0.19 goals per sim.

For Burnley, we’ll have our eyes on Ashley Barnes. Barnes has close to a 32 percent chance to score, averaging 2.26 shots overall per sim, 0.85 shots on goal per and 0.38 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

The draw.

Odds indicate there’s a 30 percent chance this match ends in a draw. That happens in approximately 35 percent of simulations, suggesting some added value on the pick. The projected score is 0.96 – 0.80, in favor of Burnley. Given this is the first weekend of league play, trends suggest both sides may be a bit rusty to kick things off.