We’ve got a full Premier League slate this weekend as we get set to tune in to Vitality Stadium as West Ham United and AFC Bournemouth go head to head. Simulation data is showing some side value in this one.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Dafabet Odds
Team to Win (Regular Time)
•AFC Bournemouth: 2.51
•Draw: 3.78
•West Ham United: 2.73
Spread
•AFC Bournemouth -0.5: 2.49
•West Ham United +0.5: 1.60
Total
•Over 3: 1.98
•Under 3: 1.92
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds indicate there’s a 26.5 percent chance this match ends in a draw. That happens in 26.3 percent of simulations — suggesting no added value on the pick.
The projected score is 1.88 – 1.23, in favor of AFC Bournemouth.
Tired Legs: Both sides had a mid-week matchup away from the Premier League, losing in the third round of the Carabao Cup. They are, however, both coming off EPL wins the week before, with Bournemouth notching a 3-1 road win vs Southampton and West Ham getting a convincing 2-0 home win vs Manchester United.
Leading the Way: West Ham is tied with Man City this season for the most clean sheets (3).
Head to Head: These two sides last matched up in Premier League action on Jan. 19, 2019 when Bournemouth won, 2-0.
Projected Leaders
Sebastien Haller is projected to lead West Ham with a 34-to-35 percent chance to score. He averages 1.24 shots overall per sim, 0.60 shots on goal per and 0.42 goals per sim.
For Bournemouth, we’ll have our eyes on Callum Wilson who has a a 46-to-47 percent chance to score. He averages 2.26 shots overall per sim, 1.24 shots on goal per and 0.62 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
Bournemouth +0.5
Tons of value on this pick when you consider that simulation data actually has Bournemouth winning 50+ percent of simulations. We’re always interested when odds-makers and simulation data are on opposite sides of the money line.
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