EPL Game Preview: Newcastle vs Brighton & Hove Albion

St. James’ Park is the venue as Newcastle and Brighton & Hove Albion go head-to-head as both sides look to right a ship that has already gone off track early in the season. Both sides will be desperate for a win.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)
•Newcastle United: 2.57
•Draw: 3.19
•Brighton & Hove Albion: 3.05

Spread
•Newcastle United -0.5: 2.58
•Brighton & Hove Albion +0.5: 1.56

Total
•Over 2: 1.77
•Under 2: 2.14

What to Watch For

Betting on the Draw: Odds indicate there’s a 31 percent chance this match finishes in a draw. That happens in a similar percentage of simulations, suggesting no added value on the pick. But still noted that close to a third of sims end in a draw.

The projected score is 1.21 – 0.91, in favor of Brighton & Hove Albion.

Just Barely: Brighton almost had three points in the bag last week, but gave up a 91st-minute goal to Burnley to finish in a draw. They’ll be focused on getting those points back this week.

Tale of Two Halves: Newcastle — overall — had a strong performance vs Liverpool last week. They took an early lead, but once again had a second-half letdown as they notched another loss on the books.

Head to Head: These two sides last matched up in Premier League action on Apr. 27, 2019 when they finished in a 1-1 draw.

Projected Leaders

Neal Maupay averages 2.52 shots overall per sim for Brighton, 1.05 shots on goal per and 0.53 goals per sim. He has a 41-to-42 percent chance to score.

Joelinton has a 19 percent chance to score for Newcastle, averaging 1.64 shots overall per sim, 0.65 shots on goal per and 0.21 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

Safe Pick: Brighton +0.5; Bold Pick: Brighton to win

Whereas odds makers have Newcastle as slight favorites, sim data is on Brighton’s side to win this matchup. Odds indicate Brighton have a 33 percent chance to win this matchup; they win close to 43 percent of simulations, suggesting quite a bit of side value on the pick. That side value is a four-star (out of four) hot trend pick.

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